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To explore early prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 （COVID-19） outbreak based on system dynamics model analysis. The data of early outbreak of COVID-19 were collected from the World Health Organization，covering countries of the China，United States，United Kingdom，Australia，Serbia and Italy. The susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered （SEIR） model was generalized and then its parameters were optimized. According to the parameters in the basic infection number expression，the sensitivity in the system dynamics model was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of the protection rate，infection rate and average quarantine time on the early spread of the outbreak. Based on the analysis results，targeted prevention and control measures for the early outbreak of COVID-19 were proposed. The generalized SEIR model had a good fit for the early prediction and evaluation of COVID-19 outbreaks in six countries. The spread of COVID-19 was mainly affected by the protection rate，infection rate and average quarantine time. The improvement of the protection rate in the first ays was the most important:the greater the protection rate，the fewer the number of confirmed cases. The infection rate in the first 5 days was the most critical:the smaller the infection rate，the fewer the number of confirmed cases. The average quarantine time in the first 5 days was very important:the shorter the average quarantine time，the fewer the number of confirmed cases. Through the comparison of key parameters of six countries，Australia and China had implemented strict epidemic prevention policies，which had resulted in good epidemic prevention effects. In the early stage of the outbreak，it is necessary to improve the protection rate，shorten the average quarantine time，and implement strict isolation policies to curb the spread of COVID-19.
Subject(s)
Humans , COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Quarantine , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
Objective By exploring the relationship between the gene polymorphism of tumor related gene CD44 and the occurrence of breast cancer,the pathogenic gene or genetic predisposing gene of breast cancer was studied so as to provide theoretical basis and technical support for the screening,diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer.Methods Samples from 265 cases of breast cancer and 290 healthy female were collected. Multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and two generation sequencing were used to analyze the genetic polymorphism of 4 loci of CD44 rs11607862,rs13347,rs7116432 and rs8193.T he size and metasta-sis of 235 patients were compared.Results There was no significant difference in the expression of four sitesloci in breast cancer patients.However,in the analysis of cancer patients,the GG genotype of rs13347 lo-cus was lower than that of CC/CG type,and the lymph node metastasis rate was lower.Conclusion There is a certain correlation between the rs13347 loci of CD44 and the metastasis of breast cancer.The correlation be-tween the genetic polymorphisms of 3 loci of rs11607862,rs7116432 and rs8193 and the development of breast cancer needs more clinical samples and further research.
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Objective To explore the impact of diagnosis related groups (DRGs) payment and drug zero plus on the management of intensive care medicine department. Methods The clinical data of patients in one year from 2016 to 2017 admitted into the Department of ICU in Liuzhou Worker's Hospital concerning their numbers of discharged patients, transferred patients, bed utilization rate, number of bed turnover, average length of stay of discharged patients, cure and improvement rates, admission and discharge diagnostic coincidence rate, 3-day definite diagnosis rate, clinicopathological diagnosis coincidence rate, rescue success rate, total income, drug proportion, consumable proportion, DRGs payment and settlement data, etc were retrospectively analyzed to explore the dual challenges, DRGs payment and drug zero plus, facing the department and how to respond and deal with them. Results In 2016 and 2017, the total incomes of the department of critical care medicine in our hospital were 42.107 0 million yuan and 41.371 3 million yuan respectively, and the medical insurance incomes were 15.03 million yuan and 16.69 million yuan respectively;in 2016 and 2017, 2 693 patients and 2 922 patients were admitted and treated respectively; 595 patients and 577 patients were discharged respectively, with 2 071 patients and 2 334 patients transferred respectively; the balances of the department were 15.48 million yuan and 29.11 million yuan, respectively. From July to December 2017, the medical insurance DRGs payment data suggested that the proportion of loss of the department be 7.02%. Accelerating the Grade 6 electronic medical records and informationization construction, adopting the severe disease information solution program and fine quality control management in the department of critical care medicine can reduce the cost of manpower. Conclusion Our future development direction in the Department of Intensive Care Medicine includes the following aspects: Open source and reduce expenditure, strictly control the proportions of drugs and consumables, improve the balance of the department, and actively respond and deal with the medical insurance DRGs payment.
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Objective To observe the effects of Wendan decoction (WD) on depression-like behavior in a rat model of Parkinson's disease (PD) and explore the related mechanism.Methods Rodent model of PD was established by unilaterally lesioning medial forebrain bundle with 6-hydrodopamine.After intragastric administration with WD,the rats's behavior changes were detected by the open field test,sucrose preference test and forced swimming test;the contents of monoamine neurotransmitters in the rat brain were assessed by high-performance liquid chromatography with electrochemical detection.Results Compared with those of sham-operated rats,the horizontal and vertical activities of the PD model rats decreased significantly,and sucrose consumption decreased significantly,but immobility time during forced swimming was significantly prolonged.The contents of dopamine (DA),5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) and noradrenaline (NA) in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and DA in the striatum decreased significantly.After administration of WD for 2 weeks,the immobility time of the PD model rats was significantly decreased,sucrose consumption increased significantly;DA,5-HT and NA levels in the mPFC increased significantly.Conclusion WD improves the depression-like behavior in PD model rats,and the mechanisms may involve the regulation of monoamine neurotransmitters in mPFC.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To evaluate the effect of tetrandrine (Tet) on nitroglycerin(GTN)-induced activation of the satellite cells released inflammatory cytokines and to explore its mechanism.</p><p><b>METHOD</b>Neonatal rat satellite cells of trigeminal ganglia were cultured and separated into three groups. Group CON: the cells were normal cultured; Group TGN: the cells were cultured with 0.55 mmol x L(-1) GTN; Group Tet: the cells were treated with 0.55 mmol x L(-1) GTN and 1 x 10(-7) mol x L(-1) Tet respectively. Cell viability after GTN and Tet was detected by AlamarBlue assay. The concentration change of intracellular Ca2+ ([Ca2+]i) in single satellite cell loaded with Fluo-3/AM was determined by laser scanning confocal microscopy. NF-kappaB and IL-1beta mRNA levels were determined by FQ-PCR. Through double-immunofluorescent staining identifies satellite cells and determines the expression of NF-kappaB protein.</p><p><b>RESULT</b>Satellite cells activities decreased with GTN stimulating, but according to the viability and modality of the cells, 1 x 10(-7) mol x L(-1) Tet was the suitable prophylaxis. Tet can inhibit the elevation of cytosolic free calcium of rat satellite cell and decrease the mRNA and protein levels of NF-kappaB and the mRNA levels of IL-1beta.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Via preventing Ca2+ influxion, Tet inhibited NF-kappaB activation of satellite cell which decreased IL-1beta expression.</p>